Economic Survey 2022 -23

• On January 31, 2023, the Finance Minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2022-23 in Parliament. The Economic Survey is prepared by the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance, under the guidance of Chief Economic Advisor.
  • The current chief economic advisor is V Anantha Nageswaran.

Key Highlights of Economic Survey 2022-23 Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

• The Survey has estimated real GDP growth in 2023- 24 at 6.5%.
• It observed that the actual growth rate would lie in the range of 6-6.8%, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally.
• In 2022-23, GDP is estimated to grow at 7% in real terms.
• India is the 3rd largest economy in the world in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms and the 5th largest in market exchange rates.

Inflation:

• In 2022-23, retail inflation is estimated at 6.8%, higher than 2021-22 (5.5%).
• Retail inflation increased to 7.8% in the month of April 2022 before falling to 5.7% in December 2022.
• The Survey expects inflation in 2023-24 to be lower than 2022-23 on the back of less economic uncertainties.

Current account balance:

• India recorded a current account deficit of USD 36.4 billion (4.4% of GDP) in the second quarter of 2022-23 as compared to a deficit of USD 9.7 billion (1.3% of GDP) in the second quarter of 2021-22.
• Between April-September 2022, India’s recorded a current account deficit, of 3.3% of GDP due to an increase in merchandise trade deficit.
• Sharp rise in oil prices and foreign portfolio investment outflows due to rise in interest rates abroad put pressure on India’s Balance of Payments in 2022.

Fiscal deficit:

• The central government’s fiscal deficit moderated to 6.7% of GDP in 2021-22, after increasing to 9.2% of GDP in 2020-21.
  • Buoyant revenue collection over the last two years have helped in bringing down the fiscal deficit.
• The Survey estimated that the central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 (6.4% of GDP).
• In 2022-23, general government deficit is estimated to be 9.4% of GDP, lower than in 2021-22 (10.3% of GDP).

Debt:

• Total liabilities of the central government are estimated to decline from 59.2% of GDP in 2020- 21 to 56.7% of GDP in 2021-22.
• Outstanding liabilities of the general government are estimated to be 86.5% in 2022-23.
• Most of it is held by residents and is denominated in rupees (95.1% of the total).
• External debt is entirely owed to official sources, which insulates it from changes in international capital markets.
• About 98% of the debt is contracted at fixed interest rates, insulating from changes in interest rates.

Agriculture and allied activities :

• India’s agriculture sector has grown at an average annual rate of 4.6% during the last six years.
  • In 2021-22, it grew by 3%, lower than 2020-21 (3.3%).
• India has also emerged as a net exporter of agricultural products with exports reaching an all- time high of USD 50.2 billion in 2021-22.
• The production of foodgrains and oil seeds has been increasing year-on-year.
  • However, wheat production was adversely impacted in 2022 due to an early heat wave.
• The Survey observed that there has been a consistent increase in institutional agricultural credit.
  • In 2021-22, agricultural credit was 13% higher than the target of Rs 16.5 lakh crore.
  • The target for agricultural credit for 2022-23 is Rs 18.5 lakh crore.

Industry:

• Industry accounts for 31% of India’s GDP and employs over 12.1 crore people.
  • In 2022-23, the industrial sector is estimated to grow by 6.7%.
• India is ranked 3rd worldwide in the production of pharma products by volume and 14th by value.
  • The sector is the largest provider of generie medicines globally, occupying a 20 per cent share in global supply by volume, and is also the leading vaccine manufacturer globally with a market share of 60 per cent.

Services sector:

• The services sector recovered swiftly in 2021-22 after bearing the maximum burden of the pandemic.
  • In 2021-22, the services sector grew by 8.4% as compared to a contraction of 7.8% in 2020-21.
• In 2022-23, the services sector is estimated to grow by 9.1%.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Service:

• The World Investment Report 2022 of UNCTAD places India as the 7th largest recipient of FDI in the top 20 countries in 2021.
• In FY22 India received the highest-ever FDI inflows of US$ 84.8 billion including US$ 7.1 billion FDI equity inflows in the services sector.

External Sector:

• India achieved an all-time high annual merchandise export of US$ 422.0 billion in FY22.
• Merchandise exports were US$ 332.8 billion over April-December 2022, against US$ 305.0 billion during the period April-December 2021.
• Non petroleum and non-gems & jewellery exports in April-December 2022 were USS 233.5 billion, as compared to US$ 230.0 billion in April-December 2021.
  • Petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) exports constituted about 21.1 per cent and non-POL exports were 78.9 per cent of total exports during FY23 (until December 2022).

Capital Account Balance:

• Foreign investment, consisting of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), is the largest component of the capital account.
• During April-September 2022, gross FDI inflows were US$ 39.3 billion as compared to US$ 42.5 billion a year ago.
• • Computer Software and Hardware attracted the highest share of FDI equity inflow (23.4 per cent) followed by Services (15.4 per cent) and Trading(12.2 percent).
• In terms of FDI inflow, Singapore was the top investing country with a 37.0 per cent share, followed by Mauritius (12.1 per cent), UAE (11.0 per cent), and the USA (10.0 per cent).

Foreign Exchange Reserves:

• As of December 2022, Forex Reserves stood at US$ 563 bn covering 9.3 months of imports.
• As of end-November 2022, India is the 6th largest foreign exchange reserves holder in the world.
• Remittances are the second largest major source of external financing after service export.

Infrastructure:

• Capital expenditure in 2022-23 is targeted at 7.5 lakh crore, 35.4% higher than2021-22.
• To sustain the investment drive, the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has provided a forward-looking roadmap of investible projects of around Rs 111 lakh crore between 2019-20 and 2024-2025.
• Currently, the NIP has 8,964 projects with a total investment of more than Rs 108 lakh crore under different stages of implementation.
  • The transport sector constitutes more than half of these projects.

Employment:

• Labour markets have recovered beyond pre-COVID levels in both urban and rural areas.
• The unemployment rate decreased from 5.8% in 2018-19 to 4.2% in 2020-21.
• There was also an increase in the rural female labour force participation rate from 19.7% in 2018-19 to 27.7% in 2020-21.
• Unemployment rate in urban areas decreased from 8.3% in July-September 2019 to 7.2% in July- September 2022.
• The number of persons demanding work under MGNREGS was seen at levels similar to the pre- pandemic period during July-November 2022.
  • The number of works done under MGNREGS has steadily increased over the years with 85 lakh completed works in 2021-22 and 70.6 lakh completed works in 2022-23 as on January 9, 2023.

Insurance and pension:

• Insurance penetration (insurance premiums to GDP ratio) in India increased from 2.7% in 2000 to 4.2% in 2021.
  • The Survey noted that life insurance penetration in India was 3.2% in 2021.
• An increase in FDI limit for insurance companies and digitisation of the insurance market is likely to facilitate growth.
• India’s pension sector has expanded since the introduction of the National Pension Scheme (NPS) and APY.
• The coverage of population under NPS and APY as a share of total population increased from 1.2% in 2016-17 to 3.7% in 2021-22.
• The Survey noted that there is significant scope for growth in India’s pension sector as per capita income is expected to rise in the future.